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14-September-2008 12:50:32 - Endemic epidemiology This article is about the epidemiological meaning of endemic. For the ecological meaning, see endemism. Look up endemic in Wiktionary, the free dictionary. December 2007 In epidemiology, an infection is said to be endemic from Greek en- in or within + demos people in a population when that infection is maintained in the population without the need for external inputs. For example, chickenpox is endemic steady state in the UK, but malaria is not. Every year, there are a few cases of malaria acquired in the UK, but these do not lead to sustained transmission in the population due to the lack of a suitable vector mosquitoes of the genus Anopheles. For an infection to be endemic, each person who becomes infected with the disease must pass it on to exactly one other person on average. Assuming a completely susceptible population, that means that the basic reproduction number R0 of the infection must equal 1. In a population with some immune individuals, the basic reproduction number multiplied by the proportion of susceptible individuals in the population S must be 1. This takes account of the probability of each individual to whom the disease may be transmitted actually being susceptible to it, effectively discounting the immune sector of the population. For the disease to be in an endemic steady state: \ R_0 \times S = 1 In this way, the infection neither dies out nor does the number of infected people increase exponentially but the infection is said to be in an endemic steady state. An infection that starts as an epidemic will eventually either die out with the possibility of it resurging in a theoretically predictable cyclical manner or reach the endemic steady state, depending on a number of factors, including the virulence of the disease and its mode of transmission. If a disease is in endemic steady state in a population, the relation above allows us to estimate the R0 an important parameter of a particular infection. This in turn can be fed into the mathematical model of an epidemic. It should be noted that while it might be common to say that AIDS is endemic in Africa, this is a use of the word in its colloquial form meaning found in an area. AIDS cases in Africa are still increasing, so the disease is not in an endemic steady state. It is more correct to call the spread of AIDS in Africa an epidemic. See also Epidemic Infectious disease Pandemic Mathematical modelling in epidemiology Syndemic Retrieved from http://en..org/wiki/Endemic_epidemiology Categories: Epidemiology | PreventionHidden categories: Articles lacking sources from December 2007 | All articles lacking sources Views Article Discussion this page History Personal tools Log in / create account Navigation Main page Contents Featured content Current events Random article Search Go Search Interaction Community portal Recent changes Contact Donate to Help Toolbox What links here Related changes Upload file Special pages Printable version Permanent link Cite this page Languages ÄŒesky Deutsch Español Français Italiano Nederlands 日本語 ‪Norsk bokmÃ¥l‬ Polski Português РуÑ?Ñ?кий СрпÑ?ки / Srpski Svenska УкраїнÑ?ька ä¸æ–‡ This page was last modified on 2 September 2008, at 15:00
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