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07-SEPTEMBER-2008 03:17:44 - Life expectancy This article is about the measure of remaining life. For the Dean Koontz novel, see Life Expectancy novel. It has been suggested that Life Expectancy Index be merged into this article or section. Discuss CIA World Factbook 2007 Estimates for Life Expectancy at birth years. over 80 77.5-80.0 75.0-77.5 72.5-75.0 70.0-72.5 67.5-70.0 65.0-67.5 60-65 55-60 50-55 45-50 40-45 under 40 not available CIA World Factbook 2007 Estimates for Life Expectancy at birth years. over 80 77.5-80.0 75.0-77.5 72.5-75.0 70.0-72.5 67.5-70.0 65.0-67.5 60-65 55-60 50-55 45-50 40-45 under 40 not available Life expectancy is a statistical measure of the average life span average length of survival of a specified population. It most often refers to the expected age to be reached before death for a given human population by nation, by year of birth, or by other demographic variables. Life expectancy may also refer to the expected time remaining to live, and that too can be calculated for any age or for any group. Life expectancy is heavily dependent on the criteria used to select the group. In countries with high infant mortality rates, the life expectancy at birth is highly sensitive to the rate of death in the first few years of life. In these cases, another measure such as life expectancy at age 5 e5 can be used to exclude the effects of infant mortality to reveal the effects of causes of death other than early childhood causes. For the life expectancy of adults rather than from birth see longevity. See also List of countries by life expectancy Contents 1 Life expectancy over human history 2 Timeline for humans 3 Variations in life expectancy in the world today 4 Evolution and aging rate 5 Sex differences in life expectancy 6 Lower life expectancy in people with serious mental illness 7 Calculating life expectancies 8 See also 8.1 Increasing life expectancy 9 References 10 Further reading 11 External links Life expectancy over human history Life expectancy has been increasing and converging for most of the world. Asia excluding Middle East Central America Caribbean Europe Middle East North Africa North America Oceania South America Sub-Saharan Africa Life expectancy has been increasing and converging for most of the world. Asia excluding Middle East Central America Caribbean Europe Middle East North Africa North America Oceania South America Sub-Saharan Africa Life expectancy is the average number of years a human has before death, conventionally calculated from the time of birth, but also can be calculated from any specified age.1 Advances in sanitation, nutrition, and medical knowledge made possible incredible changes in life expectancy throughout the world, providing subjects for study as well as the need to study them. In the United States, only 50 percent of children born in 1900 could reasonably hope to reach the age of 50; life expectancy today is approximately 77 years of age. But note that there is a big discrepancy between males and females, 73.6 years for men and 79.4 years for women. Life expectancy is lower for African Americans; 67.2 years for men and 74.7 years for women Hoyert, Kochanek, and Murphy, 1999. Life expectancy recovered somewhat, but it is only in recent centuries that it has dramatically increased. These changes are the result of a combination of factors including nutrition and public health, and medicine only marginally. The most important single factor in the increase is the reduction of death in infancy. The greatest improvements have been in the richest parts of the world. Life expectancy increased dramatically in the 20th century. Life expectancy at birth in the United States in 1900 was 47 years. Life expectancy in India at mid-century was around 32, by 2000 it had risen to 64 years. According to the 2006 WHO Report, due to HIV/AIDS and other health related issues today's life expectancy in poorer nations is almost half that of the industrialized, richer nations 1. Calculating life expectancy from birth emphasizes contributions to improvement in health at lower ages; low pre-modern life expectancy is influenced by high infant and childhood mortality. If a person did make it to the age of forty they had an average of another twenty years to live. Improvements in sanitation, public health, and nutrition have mainly increased the numbers of people living beyond childhood, with less effect on overall average lifetimes. The major exception to this general pattern of improvement has been in countries most affected by AIDS, especially Sub-Saharan Africa, which have seen significant decrements in life expectancy. Another exception is Russia and some other former USSR republics after the collapse of the Soviet Union - in 1999 life expectancy of men dropped to 59.9 years below the official retirement age, and the life expectancy of women dropped to 72.43 years. The commonly offered hypothesis for this decrease is not related to AIDS/HIV but rather to an increase in alcohol and drug abuse.2 In recent years, obesity-related diseases have become a major public health issue in many countries. The prevalence of obesity is thought to have reduced life expectancy by contributing to the rise of cancers, heart disease and diabetes in the developed world. However, recent studies in the developed world have found that people who are modestly overweight have a lower risk of death than those of normal weight.3 It remains to be determined whether this epidemic will have negative effect on the life expectancy of developed countries. Most continue to have improving life expectancies. Timeline for humans Homo sapiens live on average 31.99 years in Swaziland and on average 82 years in Japan 2008 est.. The oldest confirmed recorded age for any human is 122 years, though some people are reported to have lived longer. Although there are several longevity myths mostly in different stories that were spread in some cultures, there is no scientific evidence of a human living for hundreds of years at any point of time. The following information is derived from the Encyclopaedia Britannica, 1961, as well as other sources: Humans by Era Average Lifespan at Birth years Comment Neanderthal 20 Homo neanderthalensis was a separate species from modern humans but were members of the genus Homo, to which humans belong. Upper Paleolithic 33 At age 15: 39 to age 5445 Neolithic 20 Bronze Age6 18 Classical Greece7 20-30 Classical Rome89 20-30 Pre-Columbian North America10 25-35 Medieval Britain1112 20-30 Early 20th Century1314 30-40 Current world average1516 66.12 2008 est. These represent the life expectancies of the population as a whole. In many instances life expectancy varied considerably according to class and gender. Life expectancy rises sharply in all cases for those who reach puberty. All statistics include infant mortality, but not miscarriage or abortion. This table also rejects certain beliefs based on myths that the old age man had a higher life expectancy. The sharp drop in life expectancy with the advent of the Neolithic mirrors the evidence that the advent of agriculture actually marked a sharp drop in life expectancy that humans are only recovering from in affluent nations today. Variations in life expectancy in the world today There are great variations in life expectancy worldwide, mostly caused by differences in public health, medicine and nutrition from country to country. There are also variations between groups within single countries. Significant differences still remain in life expectancy between men and women in France and other developed countries, with women outliving men by five years or more. These gender differences have been lessening in recent years, with men's life expectancy improving at a faster rate than women's.citation needed In France, significant differences in life expectancy between different racial and ethnic groups have persisted, though they have lessened somewhat. Poverty, in particular, has a very substantial effect on life expectancy. In the United Kingdom life expectancy in the wealthiest areas is ten years longer than the poorest areas and the gap appears to be increasing as life expectancy for the prosperous continues to increase while in more deprived communities there is little increase.17 Life expectancy may also be reduced for people exposed to high levels of highway air pollutioncitation needed or industrial air pollution. Occupation may also have a major effect on life expectancy. Well-educated professionals working in offices have a high life expectancy, while coal miners and in prior generations, asbestos cutters do not. Other factors affecting an individual's life expectancy are genetic disorders, obesity, access to health care, diet, exercise, tobacco smoking, and excessive drug and alcohol use. As pointed out above, AIDS has recently had a negative effect on life expectancy, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. Evolution and aging rate The differing lifespans within various species of plants and animals, including humans, raises the question of why such lifespans are observed. The evolutionary theory states that organisms that are able by virtue of their defenses or lifestyle to live for long periods whilst avoiding accidents, disease, predation etc. are likely to have genes that code for slow aging - good repair. This is so because if a random genetic trait found in the organism increases its survivability, it is more likely to pass on its genes to the next generation. Thus, a member of the population with genes that lend to increased survivability will tend to reproduce more and have more successors. This gene which increases survivability will thus be increasingly spread throughout the species, increasing the survivability of the species as a whole. Conversely a change to the environment that means that organisms die younger from a common disease or a new threat from a predator will mean that organisms that have genes that code for putting more energy into reproduction than repair will do better. The support for this theory includes the fact that better defended animals, for example small birds that can fly away from danger live for a decade or more whereas mice which cannot, die of old age in a year or two. Tortoises and turtles are very well defended indeed and can live for over a hundred years. A classic study comparing opossums on a protected island with unprotected opossums also supports this theory.citation needed But there are also counterexamples, suggesting that there is more to the story. Guppies in predator-free habitats evolve shorter life spans than nearby populations of guppies where predators exact a large toll. A broad survey of mammals indicates many more exceptions. The theory of evolution of aging may be in flux. Another main counterexample is that the evolutionary traits best for short term survival may be detrimental to long term survival. For example, a hummingbird's extremely fast wings allow it to escape from predators and to find mates, assuring that the genetic trait for fast wings is passed on, explained by natural selection. However, these fast wings can be detrimental to the hummingbird's long term health, as the wings consume vast amounts of Adenosine triphosphate cellular energy molecules and cause the hummingbird's heart to deteriorate with permanent and long-term wear. This allows for hummingbirds to effectively survive and reproduce, however as a result, hummingbirds usually die shortly after reproducing. Short term survival traits are usually those that are most commonly passed on in natural selection. However, humans with technology have prioritized their traits to improve long term survival, as they have already developed short term survival to a significant extent by ensuring their dominance of the food chain. This is known as artificial selection. Sex differences in life expectancy If one does not consider the many women who die while giving birth or in pregnancy, the female human life expectancy is considerably higher than those of men, who, on average, consume more tobacco, alcohol and drugs than females in most societies. In most countries many more men than women commit suicide. In general, men are more likely to be murdered. In wars, many men die in combat as soldiers. Men tend to take more risks than females when driving motor vehicles. 2 There is significantly more research and awareness for women's health than men's health. For example there are seven breast cancer drugs for every one prostate cancer drug. In respect to US federal funding, there is twice as much money dedicated breast cancer than to prostate cancer. 3 The United States has an office dedicated to women's health while there is not one for men. The situation is mirrored in other industrialized countries. Some argue that shorter male life expectancy is merely another manifestation of the general rule, seen in all mammal species, that larger individuals tend on average to have shorter lives. 418 If small body size is a result of poor nutrition and not of genetics, then the rule is the other way around: better nourished people are taller and live longer. 5 However, the difference between male and female expectancies varies significantly between countries. For example, men outlive women in Afghanistan, Lesotho, Swaziland and Niger, while at the other extreme Russian women outlive men by 13.6 years. Lower life expectancy in people with serious mental illness Persons with serious Mental illness die, on average, 25 years earlier than the general public. PDF Morbidity and Mortality in People with Serious Mental Illness Serious Mental Illness Suffer From Lack of Integrated Care, Psychiatry News January 5, 2007 Volume 42, Number 1, page 5 Mental illnesses such as schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and major depression. Three out of five mentally ill die from mostly preventable physical diseases. Diseases such as Heart/Cardiovascular disease, Diabetes, Dyslipidaemia, Respiratory ailments, Pneumonia, Influenza. Calculating life expectancies The starting points for calculating life expectancies is the age-specific death rates of the population members. For example, if 10% of a group of people alive at their 90th birthday die before their 91st birthday, then the age-specific death rate at age 90 would be 10%. These values are then used to calculate a life table, from which one can calculate the probability of surviving to each age. In actuarial notation the probability of surviving from age x to age x+n is denoted \,_np_x\! and the probability of dying during age x i.e. between ages x and x+1 is denoted q_x\! . The life expectancy at age x, denoted \,e_x\! , is then calculated by adding up the probabilities to survive to every age. This is the expected number of complete years lived one may think of it as the number of birthdays they celebrate. e_x =\sum_t=1^\infty\,_tp_x = \sum_t=0^\inftyt \,_tp_x q_x+t Because age is rounded down to the last birthday, on average people live half a year beyond their final birthday, so half a year is added to the life expectancy to calculate the full life expectancy. Life expectancy is by definition an arithmetic mean. It can be calculated also by integrating the survival curve from ages 0 to positive infinity the maximum lifespan, sometimes called 'omega'. For an extinct cohort all people born in year 1850, for example, of course, it can simply be calculated by averaging the ages at death. For cohorts with some survivors it is estimated by using mortality experience in recent years. Note that no allowance has been made in this calculation for expected changes in life expectancy in the future. Usually when life expectancy figures are quoted, they have been calculated like this with no allowance for expected future changes. This means that quoted life expectancy figures are not generally appropriate for calculating how long any given individual of a particular age is expected to live, as they effectively assume that current death rates will be frozen and not change in the future. Instead, life expectancy figures can be thought of as a useful statistic to summarize the current health status of a population. Some models do exist to account for the evolution of mortality e.g., the Lee-Carter model19. See also Biodemography Calorie restriction Demography DNA damage theory of aging Economics Indefinite lifespan Life table List of countries by life expectancy Maximum life span Medieval demography Mitohormesis Mortality rate Senescence Increasing life expectancy Strategies for Engineered Negligible Senescence SENS John Sperling Life extension Longevity Rejuvenation References ^ Minerva Center for Economic Growth Paper No. 02-05 http://ssrn.com/abstract=563741 ^ Health warning over Russian youth ^ CDC Links Extra Pounds, Lower Death Risk, Associated Press, April 20, 2005. ^ Hillard Kaplan, ect. al, in A Theory of Human Life History Evolution: Diet, Intelligence,weed knowledge and Longevity Evolutionary Anthropology, 2000, p. 156-185, - http://www.soc.upenn.edu/courses/2003/spring/soc621_iliana/readings/kapl00d.pdf ^ Caspari Lee 'Older age becomes common late in human evolution' Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA, 2004, p. 10895-10900 ^ James Trefil, Can We Live Forever? 101 Things You Don't Know About Science and No One Else Does Either 1996 ^ Average Life Expectancy at Birth ^ Life expectancy sociology ^ University of Wyoming ^ Pre-European Exploration, Prehistory through 1540 ^ Time traveller's guide to Medieval Britain ^ A millennium of health improvement ^ World Health Organization ^ Our Special Place in History ^ CIA - The World Factbook -- Rank Order - Life expectancy at birth ^ World Bank - http://www.worldbank.org/depweb/english/modules/social/life/index.html ^ Department of Health -Tackling health inequalities: Status report on the Programme for Action ^ Samaras, Thomas T. und Heigh, Gregory H.: How human size affects longevity and mortality from degenerative diseases. Townsend Letter for Doctors Patients 159: 78-85, 133-139 ^ Ronald D. Lee and Lawrence Carter. 1992. Modeling and Forecasting the Time Series of U.S. Mortality, Journal of the American Statistical Association 87 September: 659-671. Further reading Leonid A. Gavrilov Natalia S. Gavrilova 1991, The Biology of Life Span: A Quantitative Approach. New York: Harwood Academic Publisher, ISBN 3-7186-4983-7 External links Wikimedia Commons has media related to: Life expectancy Calculate your life expectancy online based on the Austrian generation and annuity valuation life tables Rank Order - Life expectancy at birth from the CIA's World Factbook. CDC year-by-year life expectancy figures for USA from the USA Centers for Disease Controls and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics. Life expectancy in Roman times from the University of Texas. The changing influence of sex and race on life expectancy in the US from Western Washington University. Database of life expectancy from multiple countries from The human Mortality Database. Animal lifespans: Animal Lifespans from Tesarta Online Internet Archive; The Life Span of Animals from Dr Bob's All Creatures Site. Life expectancy among the countries in the European Union 2007 Scientists Have Found the Gene That Decides How Long We Live Hans Rosling presents animated data showing global life expectancy from 1820-2020 video from TED Conference Retrieved from http://en..org/wiki/Life_expectancy Categories: Actuarial science | Aging | Demography | Population | Gerontology | Human-based units of measureHidden categories: Articles to be merged since August 2008 | All articles with statements | Articles with statements since October 2007 | Articles with statements since February 2007 | Articles with statements since September 2007 Views Article Discussion this page History Personal tools Log in / create account Navigation Main page Contents Featured content Current events Random article Search Go Search Interaction Community portal Recent changes Contact Donate to Help Toolbox What links here Related changes Upload file Special pages Printable version Permanent link Cite this page Languages Alemannisch العربية Català Česky Deutsch Español Esperanto Français Galego Bahasa Indonesia Italiano עברית LatvieÅ¡u Lietuvių Nederlands 日本語 ‪Norsk bokmÃ¥l‬ Polski Português РуÑ?Ñ?кий Simple English Suomi Svenska தமிழà¯? Türkçe УкраїнÑ?ька ä¸æ–‡ This page was last modified on 25 August 2008, at 20:34
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